Dienstag, 08.03.2022 (14:00 - 15:00 Uhr)

Space Weather Early Warning System

Yuri Shprits

(GFZ Deutsches GeoForschungs Zentrum, Space Physics and Space Weather, Potsdam)

The Earth Van Allen radiation belts consist of energetic electrons and ions trapped by the Earth’s magnetic field. Understanding of the dynamics of the radiation belt electrons is important as these energetic particles create a hazardous environment for the Earth-orbiting satellites and humans in space.
Understanding of the dynamics of relativistic electrons is complicated by the fact that each satellite provides only a single point measurement in time and space and does not allow to observe the global evolution of the system. Recently, the radiation belt community started introducing data assimilation tolls and machine learning tools to blend various measurements with various observational errors with physics-based models according to the underlying errors, in an optimal way.
In particular modeling and data, assimilation allow us to provide a real-time forecast of the radiation environment and revile the missing physical processes. We also present an overview of the recently funded by EU Horizon 2020 project led by GFZ that will produce a chain of probabilistic modeling forecasts from the Sun to the inner magnetosphere.